Hakeem Gbadamosi of Nigerian Tribune reports on the forthcoming governorship election in Ondo State and the chances of the two main contenders in the race: the incumbent Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and former Deputy Governor Agboola Ajayi of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
THE Saturday, September 21 governorship election in Edo State won by the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the attendant outcry against the result and performance of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in a way, might have already pointed the way the November 16, 2024 Ondo State governorship election would go. It is only on rare occasions that INEC had been applauded for its performance and neutrality during elections. Most often, what the electoral umpire has got from its political clients — which it is constitutionally empowered to render electoral services to — is umbrage and allegations of partisanship.
But while the INEC will have all eyes fastened on it in the coming Ondo governorship election, gladiators in the poll have busied themselves combing every part of the state to shop for votes that will take them to the Alagbaka House. So far, the INEC has confirmed about 17 political parties, including both the APC and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) for the election.
The incumbent, Lucky Aiyedatiwa, flying the APC flag, is turning every stone to ensure his party retains the seat for another term of four years having by divine design succeeded his principal, Mr Rotimi Akeredolu, who transited midway on his second term as governor. In the same way, his closest rival, Agboola Ajayi of PDP is making efforts to unseat the ruling party leveraging on the current unsavoury economic situation across the nation.
To political pundits, Ondo State is one of the most politically sophisticated in the country, but out of the 17 political parties participating in the election, only five are at the forefront in the gubernatorial race namely: APC, PDP, the Labour Party (LP) the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) and Zenith Labour Party (ZLP)
Interestingly, pundits noted that though some other political parties have been trying hard to make a mark in the November election, they lack the capacity to make remarkable impacts in the election owing to their limited financial capacities.
As candidates shop for votes…
Apart from both Aiyedatiwa and Ajayi who have both served as deputy governors for the late Akeredolu, there are in the race a three-time commissioner in the state, Chief Sola Ebiseni, the standard-bearer for the LP; former Ondo State representative in the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), Gbenga Edema is the candidate of NNPP and Abass Mimiko, brother of former Governor Olusegun Mimiko, is the ZLP candidate.
A few weeks back, four of the five candidates were running neck and neck, but recent development has, without bias, reduced the game to a two-horse race between the APC and PDP. It is interesting to note that the frontline parties had strategically chosen their candidates from the Southern senatorial zone in accordance with the zoning arrangement adopted ahead of the parties’ primaries which favoured the South senatorial zone to produce the governor. In other words, just as the incumbent governor, Aiyedatiwa, hails from the South senatorial zone, other candidates are from the same zone with the only exception being the ZLP candidate, who is from the central senatorial zone.
Apparently afraid of likely PDP campaign onslaught in the battle to win the state, the ruling APC had deftly moved to bring in aggrieved members of the party back into the fold. Ahead of the election, South-West leaders of the party in conjunction with some National leaders converged on Akure where the aggrieved aspirants were begged to sheathe their swords and return to the party. Pundits believe the move would provide a big boost for the APC’s quest to retain the state. The aggrieved members who have been begged to return include Wale Akinterinwa; Olusola Oke; Oladunni Odu and Isaacs Kekemeke. The reconciliatory moves laid to rest the bad blood created by the death of Akeredolu, bringing all factions and aggrieved members back to the fold.
The situation, however, is different in the PDP. Some aggrieved chieftains of the party have continued to sit on the fence and show indifference towards the election, while their foot soldiers have switched allegiance. While the party’s candidate in the 2020 governorship candidate, Eyitayo Jegede SAN, has maintained dignified silence, and mum has been the word in the camp of former Governor Mimiko, with many of his foot soldiers openly working for Aiyedatiwa.
Though the PDP has repeatedly maintained that the exit or silence of some of these chieftains would not affect the fortune of the party in the election, political observers noted that the camp of Aiyedatiwa appears to be swelling on a daily basis with many politicians willing to support his ambition.
But regardless of all this, Ajayi remains one of the strongest politicians in Ondo State. He is a grassroots politician, who rose through the ranks to become the deputy governor of the state. Ajayi started his political career under the platform of Social Democratic Party (SDP) and became the chairman of SDP in the old Ondo State. He later joined PDP in 1998 and was made the Secretary of PDP in Ilaje/Ese Odo between 1998 and 1999.
He was the Chairman of Ese Odo LGA between 2003 and 2004 before he was elected as member of the Federal House of Representatives to represent Ilaje/Ese Odo federal constituency under the PDP before defecting to APC to run the governorship race as deputy to Akeredolu. He has been working assiduously to ensure victory for PDP.
Though it is hard to state categorically where the pendulum of victory will swing in the election, a quick look would indicate that Aiyedatiwa, owing to incumbency factor and federal might euphemism for the federal government deploying resources to favour its preferred candidate, may have an edge over the other candidates. It might look dicey on the surface, but events in the last few weeks showed a swelling of Aiyedatiwa’s support base across the state.
All this, however, is not cut and dry as the power to decide who will lead Ondo State rests on the people. On the factors that will determine the winner, political observers add nothing is certain yet. Protest vote against Tinubu and his style of governance by the people, they argued, could change the reality of the election. They predicted a sizeable number of angry electorate casting protest votes against APC over the perceived lapses in the economic reforms of the APC-led administration which could confer an advantage on the PDP in its quest to return to government in Ondo.
But others have argued that the achievements recorded by Aiyedatiwa scattered across the state within the last 10 months could earn him and his party the votes of the people of the state. Coupled with this is the payment of N73,000 minimum wage to workers in the state, which even the opposition parties perceive as strategies designed to further worm himself into the hearts of the people.
However, the chances of either of the two frontline candidates largely depend on their comparative strength and weaknesses in the three senatorial districts. Political watchers strongly believe that the winner will be decided by the party that can perform effectively in the central and North senatorial districts. The APC being the party in power stands a shoulder higher than other parties in terms of mobilisation and evidence of performance. The southern senatorial district where the candidates hail from is being regarded as the battleground.
In the southern district, opinions are divided over who between Aiyedatiwa and Ajayi should get the nod. According to some of the opinion leaders in the zone, since no politician of Ilaje and Apoi extraction from the southern senatorial district of the state has ever tasted power, the two ethnic groups, it is being said, would do everything within their power to ensure the emergence of their son. But the argument from some other quarters is that Ajayi should be favoured over Aiyedatiwa who they claimed is about completing his principal’s term, Akeredolu, and would be unable to seek a second term should he win the November 16 election.
The development, they claimed, would limit the senatorial zone to just one term as it would forfeit the chance of a second term with Aiyedatiwa due to constitutional limitations.
As it were, the PDP candidate stands to benefit from this arrangement as political leaders and followers from the district believe that the area will be shortchanged if Aiyedatiwa emerges as governor and will spend four years, whereas other zones have completed two terms of eight years. Certain people from the South, where Ajayi hails from, have reportedly bought into the project
One major factor that will determine the Ondo election is the financial war chest of the candidates. Money is crucial in any election, especially in Nigeria, where the high level of poverty means that people need financial support before they can even attend campaign rallies. The APC candidate, Aiyedatiwa has perhaps the biggest financial war chest among the contestants, and he has demonstrated in their campaigns through the massive campaigns. He will be heading into the election with a massive cash lead including external influence and financial support from APC leaders and governors, among others. All these tendencies will play a major role to checkmate Ajayi and other political opponents in the election.
But Ajayi too is not without his financial firepower. Though the PDP candidate may not have a deep pocket, he is blessed with politicians with very deep pockets who may want to reciprocate his good gestures by supporting his ambition.
Going by all these tendencies, the sky may look clearer to favour a particular candidate now, it is not, however, certain how the political weather will look on Saturday, 16 November. Would the votes of the people be made to count? Talking about the people, will they succumb to pressure from politicians and sell their votes for cups of rice and beans? What kind of roles would INEC and the federal government play? All these factors will no doubt shape the fate of the election on November 16 Organize, Conquer.
