Can we allow people to make their political decisions and move on? Ogunwuyi has his reasons, just as Deji Ola has his. They are adults entitled to their choices. If others decide to leave or remain, let us respect their decisions and move forward.
However, let us stop deceiving the public by presenting politicians moving from one political platform to another as though such movements automatically determine the outcome of an election!
THE REAL QUESTION IS: WHERE ARE THE VOTERS?
Let us examine the numbers and the people who make up the electorate in Oyo State.
1. THE SIZE OF THE ELECTORATE
According to INEC’s register for the 2023 general elections, Oyo State had 3,276,675 registered voters, comprising:
1,656,812 female voters — approximately 50.56%.
1,619,863 male voters — approximately 49.44%.
These are millions of individual citizens, not merely politicians, party leaders, political appointees or aspirants. They include workers, traders, artisans, farmers, retirees, students and other members of the public.
- THE GRASSROOTS GROUPS THAT POLITICIANS MUST NOT IGNORE
YOUTHS AND FIRST-TIME VOTERS: Young people seeking employment, education, affordable housing, electricity, digital opportunities and a better future. Their importance should be assessed through actual voter-registration and age-disaggregated data, rather than assumptions about their numbers or political preferences.
MARKET MEN AND WOMEN: Traders across Bodija, Oje, Gbagi, Oja’ba, Sango and other commercial centres whose concerns include purchasing power, access to finance, transport costs, security and the business environment.
ARTISANS, TRADERS AND SMALL-BUSINESS OWNERS: Tailors, mechanics, welders, carpenters, hairdressers, food vendors and other entrepreneurs whose livelihoods are affected by electricity costs, infrastructure, taxation and access to credit.
CIVIL SERVANTS AND PUBLIC-SECTOR WORKERS: Teachers, administrative officers, health workers, technical personnel and other government employees whose concerns include salaries, pensions, working conditions and the quality of public services. They must be counted as citizens with individual voting rights, not simply as a political bloc.
RETIRED CIVIL SERVANTS AND PENSIONERS: The Oyo State Government reported 22,212 pensioners on its payroll as of April 2025. This is a documented group with legitimate interests in pension payments, gratuities, healthcare and retirement security.
TEACHERS, LECTURERS AND EDUCATION PROFESSIONALS: Their concerns include educational funding, school infrastructure, staff welfare, teaching resources and the future of their students. Their numbers should be established from current education-sector records rather than guessed.
FARMERS AND RURAL COMMUNITIES: People engaged in crop production, livestock, food processing and agricultural trade across Oyo State’s rural communities. Their priorities include rural roads, electricity, security, irrigation, storage facilities and access to markets.
THE INFORMAL WORKFORCE: The National Bureau of Statistics’ Labour Force Survey data recorded 3,587,437 people in informal employment in Oyo State. This broad category illustrates the scale of livelihoods outside formal employment arrangements. It should not be interpreted as the number of traders alone or as a count of registered voters.
TRANSPORT WORKERS, BUTCHERS, MECHANICS AND OTHER SERVICE PROVIDERS: Their economic interests are closely connected to road conditions, fuel and transport costs, electricity supply, public safety and commercial activity.
WOMEN AND OTHER GRASSROOTS CITIZENS: Women accounted for approximately half of Oyo State’s registered voters in 2023. Their participation cannot be reduced to the number of women holding political appointments or occupying party positions.
IMPORTANT DISTINCTION: These groups overlap. A female trader may also be a young person, a farmer may be self-employed, and a retired teacher may belong to several categories. Their numbers must never be added together without accounting for such overlaps.
Furthermore, not every adult is registered to vote, and not every registered voter participates in an election.
- WHAT DO THE ELECTION FIGURES TELL US?
Oyo State had 3,276,675 registered voters for the 2023 general elections. Yet the reported turnout for the 2023 governorship election was approximately 27.2%, with 889,592 votes cast according to published election statistics.
This demonstrates why political mobilisation must go beyond counting prominent politicians who change parties.
The critical questions are:
▪ How many registered voters are being reached at the grassroots?
▪ How many citizens are actively participating in political engagement?
▪ What are the concerns of voters in the 33 local government areas?
▪ How many people are persuaded by candidates’ policies, records and programmes?
▪ What credible evidence shows that political movements are translating into broader voter support?
These are more meaningful questions than simply counting the number of political personalities who have defected.
- POLITICAL DEFECTIONS VERSUS GRASSROOTS SUPPORT
Political officeholders, party leaders and aspirants are important participants in our democracy. Their movements may influence party organisation, mobilisation and public perception.
However, a politician’s defection does not automatically mean that every supporter, community member or voter associated with that politician will follow.
Equally, the departure of a political figure does not automatically mean that the party has lost the support of ordinary citizens.
THE REAL TEST IS WHETHER A POLITICAL PARTY CAN EARN THE TRUST AND SUPPORT OF THE ELECTORATE.
For those of us who believe in the developmental strides of HE Engr. Seyi Makinde, the conversation should focus on achievements, policy continuity, accountability and the expectations of the people of Oyo State.
As supporters of APM, we should articulate our aspirations for 2027, engage citizens across all 33 local government areas and present our case to the electorate.
Our political expectations must be supported by credible evidence, effective grassroots engagement and a clear understanding of the issues that matter to the people.
A POLITICAL TSUNAMI? LET THE EVIDENCE SPEAK!
If a major political shift is anticipated in the coming weeks, let us assess developments carefully rather than confuse rumours, defections and political excitement with demonstrated voter support.
Claims about the outcome of the 2027 gubernatorial and presidential elections should likewise be distinguished from verified facts. The electorate will make its choices when the elections are held.
MY FINAL WORD:
Stop counting only the politicians who are leaving or arriving. Start paying attention to the millions of citizens whose votes will determine the elections.
Do not confuse political visibility with grassroots acceptance, or the movement of political personalities with the movement of the electorate.
POLITICAL DEFECTIONS MAKE HEADLINES, BUT THE ELECTORATE MAKES THE DECISION!
The people must remain at the centre of our political conversations. Let us discuss the facts, the issues, the records of public service and the aspirations of ordinary citizens.
THE QUESTION IS NOT JUST WHO IS LEAVING OR JOINING A PARTY. THE QUESTION IS: WHO IS EARNING THE TRUST OF THE PEOPLE? IT IS ENGR SEYI MAKINDE
